THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR NETWORKS

A university report i wrote in early 2006

The demand for seamless connectivity to the internet has contributed to the rapid development of 4G cellular network technology in order to compensate for future mobile device requirements. Cellular networks are becoming overloaded and outdated. More consumers want mobility with seamless internet connection at wired broadband speeds and the majority of current services cannot offer this.

The mobile communication industry has seen massive growth over the past few years. A report from ABI Research (cited in Compound Semiconductor, 2006) indicates more than 5 billion people, 80% of the world’s population, live within range of a cellular communications network. Of this demographic only 2 billion are subscribers to a cellular network service; figures which expose an enormous potential market. Major cellular technology manufacturers believe that by 2008, saturation will have reached 3 billion subscribers, primarily driven by emerging markets.

The media has played a huge part in shaping and defining global cultures. Every so often we see the arrival of a new media driven channel, which ultimately leads to massive shifts in the way we perceive the world. Mediums at the forefront in the past have included radio and television and more recently, the internet. Historically society has hungered for such mediums, a trend which shows no signs of slowing.

The internet brought together all the possibilities of so many different mediums, and delivered it to the world through a single common passage. Consumers have thirsted on what the internet has offered; a virtual reality of rich media content. Streaming television and radio, instant chat and video conferencing are just some of what is offered. Up until recently we have been restricted only by needing to find somewhere to “plug in” to the World Wide Web; enter the cellular network.

With the introduction of cellular communication networks, a new place to connect to the internet was formed without the physical restrictions of a wired connection. However only until recently with technology advancements in the communications industry, has it become possible to feasibly offer internet access over such networks.

With acceptance of the “unwired internet” concept on the rise, network providers have in turn had to compensate for the consumer demand. At the Ericsson Strategy & Technology summit in Shanghai, CEO and president Carl-Henric Svanberg was recently quoted as saying, “Users demand more mobile content, operators are looking for new revenue sources and media companies need new distribution channels. This is in line with our vision of an all-communicating world and we are confident that the mobile content industry has wonderful potential” (cited in 4G, 2005).

Now with the future of mobile internet firmly set in stone, various industries including the media, mobile device manufacturers and network providers are working on improving current cellular network technologies to appeal to an even greater audience.

The majority of cellular networks in place today are widely based upon 3G (Third Generation) technologies. The 3G UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System) saw its first rollout in 2001. A huge leap forward from 2G, 3G offered increased bandwidth to cope with a variety of new possibilities.

3G is capable of delivering speeds up to 384Kbps when moving at a slow pace, 128Kbps whilst moving in a vehicle and 2Mbps in fixed applications (Webopedia, 2001). At these speeds it became feasible to transfer media rich data over cellular networks such as video, image and audio. It also opened up the possibility to access services such as the internet.

Whilst 3G was greatly anticipated, its integration into existing network infrastructure was sluggish. The technology was never fully embraced by network providers and as such it was slow to mature. The construction of a fully operational 3G network in the USA was estimated to cost network providers somewhere in the order of $50 billion USD. 2G and 3G were essentially incompatible technologies; therefore the rapid construction of 3G networks was not economically viable to providers (WiMax Forum, 2006).

With the benefit of hindsight in relation to the failings of 3G, the next evolution of 4G technology promises to hold a much brighter future. From a service provider’s point of view, 4G will offer a new market for consumers, and still remain economically viable to integrate into current cellular networks.

4G networks will encompass some major technological advances over current networks. Most of the focus in 4G surrounds two rival technologies, WiMax and HSPA (High Speed Packet Access).

HSPA is a generic term referring to improvements upon the existing UMTS Radio Interface. These improvements deal with both the UMTS downlink and uplink systems, HSDPA and HSUPA respectively (UMTS Forum, 2006).

HSPA is particularly attractive to network providers because it can be implemented on current cellular networks to coexist with the first generation of UMTS. This means that there will be no requirement to modify a cellular networks core infrastructure, apart from accommodating the expected increase in traffic generated by HSPA (UMTS Forum, 2006). HSPA is essentially a matter of upgrading software from a network provider’s point of view (Goldman, 2004).

For consumers HSPA will deliver higher broadband throughputs over a very mobile medium. At the time of this publication, HSPA is in its first stages of rollout and offers broadband speeds of up to 3.6Mbit/s. The next HSPA release is forecast to offer peak data transfers in the order of 14Mbit/s. Future developments indicate even more improvements with a target data rate of 50Mbit/s (UMTS Forum). DoCoMo, the world’s largest mobile provider, has recently concluded a 4G field test in the Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture implementing MIMO (Multiple-input Multiple-Output) technology alongside HSPA. With the two technologies in unison they were able to achieve a transfer rate of 2.5Gbps traveling at 20km/h, testament to where mobile broadband speeds are heading in the future (4G, 2005).

WiMax is the second headlining technology destined for the market in the not too distant future. WiMax, like HSPA will also deliver higher broadband speeds over wireless communications, able to achieve data rates which peak at around 70Mbit/s. Whilst considerably faster than current implementations of HSPA, WiMax does have its downfalls.

WiMax is less mobile than HSPA and thus the two technologies will be targeting different sectors. Whilst HSPA is more likely to target mobile phone handsets for voice and data communication, WiMax will concentrate on delivering broadband to enterprise and underserved areas. Unlike HSPA, WiMax will also require complete revamping of current hardware; both network infrastructure and mobile devices (Goldman, 2004).

WiMax will considerably improve current cellular networks. As a multi-spectrum standard it will deliver better broadband technology whilst reducing costs through improved spectral efficiency, delivering greater long term profits for network providers (WiMax Forum, 2005).

The applications for WiMax are not only in mobile communication. At present WiMax is already being implemented as so called “Fixed WiMax”, a version which only offers some mobile capabilities. The WiMax market is predominantly in PC integration such as notebooks. In fact the WiMax standard 802.16e is a continuation of past wireless standards 802.11a/b/c which are used in many of today’s IP-centric wireless networks.

WiMax has seen rapid growth in development, and that growth is expected to continue in the consumer domain. Global manufacturers are responsible for the speedy rise to fame WiMax has achieved. Participation by many big name chipset and radio vendors is the driving force behind WiMax technology. These vendors include organizations such as Intel, AT&T, Ericsson and Motorola.

Cellular networks are now an established part of most nations’ communication systems. The ability for such networks to deliver media rich content at high speeds is becoming increasingly important to keep up with consumers demand. The immediate future of wireless broadband over cellular networks currently lies in the hands of HSPA and WiMax. Such wireless networks will continue to face ongoing redevelopments as demand inevitably climbs. Technology remains the defining factor in how well these networks will deliver services. Developers of cellular networks have identified massive emerging markets, and feed the scientific research, which makes such technology possible. What lies ahead in the mobile industry is indeed an exciting new world of amazing possibilities and freedom.

4G. (2005). World’s first 2.5Gbps packet transmission in 4G field experiment. Retrieved May 14, 2006, from http://www.4g.co.uk/PR2006/2056.htm

4G. (2005). Ericsson to collaborate on 4G. Retrieved May 10, 2006, from http://www.4g.co.uk/PR2004/March2005/2052.htm

Compound Semiconductor. (2006). Skyworks targets ultra-low-cost handset sector. Retrieved May 15, 2006, from http://www.compoundsemiconductor.net/articles/news/10/4/7/1

Goldman, J. (2004). HSPDA vs. WiMax. Wi-Fi Planet. Retrieved April 13, 2006, from http://www.wi-fiplanet.com/news/article.php/3434341

UMTS Forum. (2006, May). HSPA: High speed wireless broadband from HSDPA to HSUPA and beyond. Retrieved May 11, 2006, from the UMTS Forum web site: http://www.umts-forum.org/servlet/dycon/ztumts/umts/Live/en/umts/Home

Webopedia. (2001). 3G. Retrieved May 6, 2006, from http://www.webopedia.com/TERM/3/3G.html

WiMax Forum. (2005). Why is WiMax important for mobile broadband wireless. Retrieved May 16, 2006, from http://www.wimax.com/education/faq/faq5b